The College Football Playoff Fallacy

If you practice Bracketology – the science of predicting which teams will advance in the NCAA Basketball Championship Tournament – your life has probably been turned upside-down. Few envisioned Butler marching past Syracuse and Kansas State, and fewer imagined Northern Iowa upending Kansas. Many people’s favorite Kentucky got bounced out – by West Virginia, without its starting point guard. Georgetown lost to Ohio (not Ohio State)!

Commentators crow about how wonderful it is seeing have-nots prevail against the haves. The adage, “on any given day, one team can beat another,” is affirmed. Hooray for the little guy!

But this year’s topsiest-turviest tournament of all points out the fallacy of arguments advocating a college football playoff. The goal, we’re told, would be to resolve once and for all who the preeminent team is each year. But would it?

What true fan honestly contends Northern Iowa is truly a better team than Kansas. If they were to play 10 times, how many times would the directional school win – maybe twice? And who would be so bold to declare the Bobcats as talented as the Hoyas? Yes, winners advance fair and square, but does that ultimately convince us which team is superior day in and day out?

The same would hold true in a Division I (or whatever the academics insist on labeling it) college football playoff. On that given day, the lesser team could prevail. A fortuitous bounce here, a costly penalty there, a key injury somewhere else and a game’s outcome could hang in the balance.

I would favor a “plus one” matchup, in which following the bowl games the two best teams (chosen by consensus) would battle for national bragging rights.

But even then, so what? We would still have wars wrecking nations; economic woes putting people in financial ruin; diseases ravaging bodies. Sports championships are fun to argue about, but little more than diversions. Fifty years from now, who will really care?

Thousands of years ago, Israel’s King Solomon penned some words that apply here. He wasn’t writing about athletic tournaments, but might well have been when he said, “I have seen all the things that are done under the sun; all of them are meaningless, a chasing after the wind” (Ecclesiastes 1:14).

Any Volunteers for the Buckeyes?

Ohio State’s Buckeyes have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Friday night they will play the Tennessee Volunteers. The Bucks better win or I’ll never hear the end of it. It’s tough being a Buckeye in the Land of Orange, despite our small and zealous contingent of OSU faithful.

It’s bad enough people down here think the SEC invented football. (Actually, the first collegiate football game was played by Rutgers and Princeton. But don’t tell that to folks in Dixie.) When they convene for Saturday afternoon in the hallowed stadia of the South, they take great pride in their pigskins.

So Buckeyes, don’t let them have any quarter on the basketball court. Kentucky’s Wildcats have excelled on the hard-court for decades, but they’re not really Southern – after all, Kentucky does border Ohio and Indiana.

Nevertheless, the contest in St. Louis will be for Big Ten and Southeastern Conference pride. Having never advanced beyond the Sweet Sixteen, the Vols look to achieve a first. Ohio State has made the NCAA Tournament Finals five times, winning one national championship, so the Buckeyes know the way there.

I’m confident the Bucks won’t drop their guard – after all, the starting five includes four guards. And they have an ironman mentality. All four play virtually the entire game, apparently without getting tired. Since they’re only about 20 years old, they shouldn’t. If it were me, I’d be on life support.

All season OSU has epitomized teamwork. If one player has a subpar game, another takes up the slack. Realize it or not, they have modeled Ecclesiastes 4:9-12, “Two are better than one, because they have a good return for their work…. A cord of three strands is not quickly broken.” As a team of five strands, they have been virtually unbreakable. Hope they keep it up.

It’s Madness, I Say, Madness!

Selections have been made for this year’s NCAA Basketball Tournament and brackets filled. Regular season preliminaries are over, conference titles have been settled, tournament winners determined. Now things get serious.

There’s some teeth gnashing: “Why didn’t my team get in, while those guys did?” “Why are we a No. 5 seed, and not a No. 3?” But most of all, fanatics get to revel in more extreme emotional highs and lows than at any other time of the year. It's madness - March Madness!

Ohio State fans like me have already received a taste of that – Evan Turner’s 37-foot, three-point buzzer-beater depriving rival Michigan fans of the ecstasy of triumph on Friday; then the Buckeyes surviving double-overtime against Illinois on Saturday to advance to the Big Ten Conference Tournament final. OSU’s second half romp over Minnesota on Sunday for the championship was almost anti-climactic after the earlier frenetic finishes.

Starting this weekend, college basketball addicts from coast to coast will experience firsthand the fickle nature of happiness. Underdog teams will go on quick scoring spurts, filling their loyal followers with glee, until the stronger opponents regroup and take control.

A few teams will play over their heads and win a game or two they shouldn’t have, bringing happiness to the faithful, until they swallow a dose of reality and fall by the wayside.

Happiness, they say, is dependent upon happenings; when good things happen, we’re glad, but when bad things happen, we’re sad. So over the next three weekends we’ll witness a natural ebb and flow of happiness and hysteria, of hilarity and hopelessness.

Ultimately, only one team will grasp ultimate NCAA happiness, but all can experience the joy of knowing they did their best – even if it wasn’t quite enough. “Weeping may last for a night, but joy comes in the morning” (Psalm 30:5).

Spring is Near – and Hope Springs Eternal

While much of the country still deals with remnants of snow and frigid temperatures, promise of the coming thaw already has arrived: Spring training.

Millions remain huddled indoors, trying to keep warm, but the so-called “boys of summer” have converged upon Florida and Arizona, merging the crack of the bat with the smack of baseballs and leather. Major League Baseball’s season is less than a month away.

Long regarded as “the American pastime,” baseball has slipped somewhat from that lofty perch, usurped by the NFL and college football. For today’s fast-paced, instant society, the Major League season drags on too long and games continue to progress at snail’s pace. But the sport remains central to our national culture.

The thing about spring training is at this moment, every team holds high expectations. The Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians have as many regular season victories at this point as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox: Zero. In April that will change, but right now, hope springs eternal (or for another three weeks, whichever comes first). Whether you’re a fan of the Marlins, the Astros, the Diamondbacks…or even the Cubs, you’re thinking, “This could be our year.”

Spring training also is the time when we hear and read so much about the next phenoms, the sure-fire Hall of Famers yet to play their first major-league games. This year the list includes Washington’s Stephen Strasburg and Atlanta’s Jason Heyward. Whether they will one day join baseball’s “Who’s Who” or fade into “who’s he?” remains to be seen. But one thing they have for certain – potential. And that’s what spring training is all about.

So if you’re a baseball fan, enjoy the moment. Come September, things will probably be very different, but for now your team’s as good as the next!

You Can’t Go Back to College

Evan Turner, Ohio State’s outstanding point guard, faces a difficult decision. A junior All-American and odds-on favorite for college basketball’s player of the year, he’s projected as one of the top picks in the upcoming NBA draft. With millions of dollars beckoning, why would he consider returning for his senior year with the Buckeyes?

But he says his decision isn’t cast in stone. Now that OSU has cinched at least a tie for the Big Ten championship, Turner said he’s focused on the Big Ten tournament and then the NCAA Tournament. Then he’ll weigh the alternatives.

Again, why would Turner even think about remaining in college when he can become an instant millionaire? There are two reasons: Right now, even with hours of practice and conditioning, coupled with classwork, he’s still having fun playing a game he enjoys. Once he gets into the NBA, even if he becomes a star, it’s business, a job.

There’s also the reality the collegiate experience is once in a lifetime. A former Buckeye who gave up eligibility to turn pro, then returned to finish his degree, reportedly made this sage observation: “You can go back to school, but you can never go back to college.” In other words, once you assume adult responsibilities, you can’t go back to being a kid.

Even today, nearly 40 years later, I cherish my college years. I was young and stupid, but in the process of learning – and growing up. Sure, if the New York Times or Washington Post had made a generous offer for me to “come out early,” I would have considered it. Fortunately, I wasn’t an All-American – even in journalism school – so that temptation never arose. But my years at OSU will always stay with me.

Being young, there’s a tendency to see life in the short-term, seeking instant gratification. The perspective of years helps us to appreciate special times, thankful we didn’t toss them away.

The Bible tells us, “This is the day the Lord has made; let us rejoice and be glad in it” (Psalm 118:24). If Evan Turner does elect to turn pro, good for him; I hope he does well. But I also hope he takes his decision seriously, valuing the moment, rather than rashly opting for the obvious. After all, you’re only a kid once.

The Thrill of Victory, the Agony of Defeat

Do you remember the old ABC “Wide World of Sports” promo that featured Jim McKay’s memorable line, “The thrill of victory…and the agony of defeat,” with the last statement punctuated by the video of the hapless ski jumper tumbling off the ramp into a heap? Can you imagine what it must have been like for that guy – and then to see it repeated dozens of times, year after year?

Images like that are what capture my attention during the Olympics, especially the Winter variety. Maybe it’s because I did not grow up in the hinterlands of America, but I can’t imagine doing what many of the competitors do – zipping down an icy slope on narrow skis at upwards of 70 miles per hour; hurtling down a bobsled course with its twists and turns at nearly 90 miles an hour; trudging up and down hills as a cross-country skier; racing around an icy track on razor-sharp skates with several rivals jostling for the same space.

We cheer for the victors, but sometimes it is the agony of defeat, along with the heart-tugging stories of adversities faced and overcome, just to be a part of the Olympic dream, that we often find most captivating.

So many people approach daily life with lethargy and indifference. That’s why I so admire the men and women who have devoted their lives, and made countless sacrifices, to excel at sports they love. Even if they don’t capture the coveted gold, they have achieved far more than most of us could ever dream.

Whether they realize it or not, they are living examples of what King Solomon wrote about when he said, “Whatever your hand finds to do, do it with all your heart” (Ecclesiastes 9:10). When was the last time you were successful in doing that?

It’s Not How You Start, But How You Finish

NASCAR’s seemingly interminable season has started. Until Nov. 21, from Fontana, Calif. to Homestead, Fla., another 35 Sprint Cup races will be run, the greatest suspense being whether we’re in for a fifth consecutive installment of “The Jimmie Johnson Show.”

The Daytona 500 featured a surprise element – potholes – which prompted two red flags to halt racing. In this race, “pothole position” trumped pole position.

My NASCAR baptism came in 1997 at the Talladega Superspeedway, a sprawling 2.65-mile track where, like Daytona, cars ride two, three and even four-wide, bumper to bumper, at speeds approaching 200 miles per hour. Most memorable was a multi-car pileup on a restart midway through the race. I recall Ricky Craven’s car going airborne, flying over several cars on turn one.

From the first green flag, the spectacle of colors, the thunder and rumble of engines, even the smell of racing fuel, captivated my senses, transforming me into a fan. My zeal has waned somewhat in years since, but I’ve always marveled at the real-life truths demonstrated during each race.

Sunday, Johnson started third but mechanical and tire problems dropped him to 35th. Jeff Gordon started 21st, led some laps, but crashed on the last lap and finished 26th. Meanwhile, Jamie McMurray started 13th and made a late charge to win “The Great American Race” for the first time. The moral of the story: It’s not how you start, but how you finish.

It’s the same in everyday life. Anyone can begin well, in marriage, a job, or a hobby. But how will you finish?

That’s one reason the apostle Paul declared, “I have fought the good fight, I have finished the race, I have kept the faith” (2 Timothy 4:7). If you don’t finish well, how you perform during early or intermediate stages matters little.